New Study Reports Odds of Living to 110-Plus Level out After the Age of 105

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Researchers from University of California – Berkeley report that chances of reaching the age of 110 are increased once a person survives for 105 years.

A research led by Kenneth Wachter, a UC Berkeley professor emeritus of demography and statistics analyzed the death trajectories of around 4,000 Italian residents, aged 105 and older between 2009 and 2015 to reveal that these longevity warriors possessed more chances of surviving past 105 years of age. The data of these super centenarians (those who live for 110 years or more) and semi-super centenarians (those who live for 105 years or more) was provided by Italian National Institute of Statistics. The results show that semi-super centenarians had a 50 percent probability of dying within the year after 105 with an expected further life span of 1.5 years. Interestingly the life expectancy rate for super centenarians was projected to be the same. The trajectory for people between 90 and 99 years old was less forgiving, as Italians born in 1904 who reached age 90 had a 15 percent chance of dying within the next year. However, if they made it to 95, the odds of dying within a year increased to 24 percent and their life expectancy from that point on dropped to 3.7 years.

The increasing mortality rate in people living into their 80s and 90s was credited to frailty and a higher risk of cardiovascular diseases, dementia, cancer and pneumonia. The researchers theorize that based on natural selection frail people tend to die earlier than robust people who are genetically blessed. Similar patterns are evident in other animals such as flies and worms. The report, which challenges the claim the human lifespan has a final cut-off point was published in the journal Science on June 29, 2018.  The report further states that there is no fixed limit to the human lifespan as the oldest human being on record Jeanne Calment of France, died in 1997 at an age of 122.

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